What will the stock market do in 2024?
2024 Profit Growth Marked Lower
Third, many Wall Street analysts predict that the S&P 500 will jump in 2024, but with a lower return than last year. Sure, they're guessing, just as I am. However, they think that moderating inflation and the potential for interest rate cuts should be good for stocks.
S&P 500 could hit 6,500 by end-2025, says Capital Economics.
We think inflation fears could fade after a recent flare-up. Technology and health care stocks should rally, while M&A is likely to maintain a faster pace than last year.
Stocks bounced back decisively in 2023, with the S&P 500 gaining more than 20% through July before retreating between August and October. In November, markets recovered, and stocks closed out the year with a sharp rally.
While many analysts think the market could well climb in 2024, they're not fully discounting the possibility of a downturn either. As with the start of 2023, market watchers remain divided on the state of the market in the year ahead, as so many variables work to confound predictions.
Stocks and bonds may both be poised for success in 2024. Easing inflation and a pivoting Fed should reduce headwinds that have faced both asset classes in recent years. Resilient growth may prove to be an additional tailwind for stocks.
The updated Dow Jones price prediction for the next 5 years is for the index to trade around 45,000 points. Long Forecast predicts Dow Jones to trade at 39071 points in the first month of 2024 and and advance up to 48,000 points by the end of the year.
| Stock | Forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) |
|---|---|
| Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) | 40.0 |
| CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (CRWD) | 73.8 |
| Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH) | 25.3 |
| Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) | 30.0 |
Stocks are in a bubble that will keep inflating until 2025 and push the market 30% higher, research firm says. The stock market is in a bubble, but that doesn't mean investors should sell their stocks right now. The S&P 500 still has 30% upside between now and the end of 2025, according to Capital Economics.
Where are bonds headed in 2024?
Despite Treasuries' recent rally, yields remain very compelling, with the US 10-year Treasury now yielding 3.9%. For bond investors, these conditions are nearly ideal. After all, most of a bond's return over time comes from its yield. And falling yields—which we expect in the latter half of 2024—boost bond prices.
Bond outlooks improve, but stocks' prospects drop on the heels of 2023′s rally. Better things lie ahead for bonds, but the prospects for stocks, especially U.S. equities, are less rosy.
- UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH)
- JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM)
- Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD)
- Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE)
- Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE:CRM)
Key Takeaways. Potential economic obstacles in 2024 could delay the start of a sustained bull market, but investors can still find opportunities. Consider staying cautious on U.S. stocks while shifting to bonds for potential income and capital gains.
Key Takeaways. While holding or moving to cash might feel good mentally and help avoid short-term stock market volatility, it is unlikely to be wise over the long term. Once you cash out a stock that's dropped in price, you move from a paper loss to an actual loss.
US stocks will likely be the best investment over the next five years, according to Carson Group. The investment firm expects the US stock market to surge as much as 100% between now and 2028.
No one knows when the stock market will recover
The truth is, Wall Street has a lousy track record when it comes to short-term predictions. The good news is, that doesn't matter to long-term investors. History strongly suggests that a recovery will happen at some point. We simply don't know when.
The stock market will have a strong year
The S&P 500 generated a total return of 26%, and the Nasdaq delivered a stellar 54% return for investors. For 2024, the consensus among most analysts is a modest single-digit gain for stocks.
Key Takeaways. The U.S. equity market's rally at the end of 2023 has left stocks overvalued, with little room for error. Analysts' estimates for 2024 corporate earnings may be too optimistic, given a likely tapering in U.S. economic growth. Markets may also be overestimating the number of Fed rate cuts in 2024.
Inflation and Fed hikes have pushed mortgage rates up to a 20-year high. 30-year mortgage rates are currently expected to fall to somewhere between 5.9% and 6.1% in 2024. Instead of waiting for rates to drop, homebuyers should consider buying now and refinancing later to avoid increased competition next year.
What is the expected return of the stock market in the next 10 years?
Investors' 10 year expected return stood at 7.2% in December 2023, slightly above the reading of 7.0% in October 2023. A second line shows the average stock market return that investors expect over the coming 12 months.
Our 10-Year Stock Market Outlook
Our stock market forecasting model, which incorporates dividend yield along with other measures, currently points to a 10-year annualized return range of approximately 4.0% to 5.3% for the S&P 500® Index.
By 2025, the famed market watcher and founder of Yardeni Research sees the S&P 500 jumping nearly 30% to 6,000.
- Best safe stocks to buy.
- Berkshire Hathaway.
- The Walt Disney Company.
- Vanguard High-Dividend Yield ETF.
- Procter & Gamble.
- Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund.
- Starbucks.
- Apple.
You won't get a steady 8% return year after year. However, we know that historically, the stock market has averaged returns in that range. Over time, those returns add up to massive growth. After 30 years, your $10,000 investment could be worth over $100,000.
